Eurovision: Can The Bets Predict The Eurovision Results?

EBU grants broadcasters the right to host national finals in order to select their representatives. Many countries organise a selection process – only in 2020 25 countries organise a national final for the artist, the song or both of them. In this series of posts, we analyse the results of the past decade.

Today, we analyse the Top-10 placed countries of the past five years. What the bets had predicted just before the Eurovision Grand Final?

2015

In 2015, all the Top-10 placed countries in the odds placed in the actual Top-10 of the contest. Moreover the first five places were exactly like what the bookmakers had predicted.

2016

In 2016, 7 of the Top-10 placed countries in the odds placed in the actual Top-10 of the contest.

2017

In 2017, 7 of the Top-10 placed countries in the odds placed in the actual Top-10 of the contest.

2018

In 2018, only 5 of the Top-10 placed countries in the odds placed in the actual Top-10 of the contest.

2019

In 2019, almost all – nine – the Top-10 placed countries in the odds placed in the actual Top-10 of the contest. The only country that was in the Top-10 of the final but not to the odds was North Macedonia, which placed 7th. Moreover the first two places were exactly like what the bookmakers had predicted.

How precise are the odds?

Since 2015, from all the winners, 2 were correctly predicted by the odds – 2015 Sweden and 2019 The Netherlands.

From all the fifty entries that placed in the Top-10 the last five years 24% placed as predicted.

Note: The data were collected through oddchecker. This website displays the best possible odds from a variety of different bookmakers Despite our best efforts, there might be some mistakes.

NOTE 2: We do NOT encourage anyone to bet, this post is just a research. All betting in any forms involves risk.

What do you think about the odds? Do you considering them before watching the final of the contest? Write your thoughts on the comment box below.

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